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Real-time

Sunday, June 21st, 2009

I am watching the #iranelection stream at http://search.twitter.com.

It is mesmerizing – the #iranelection stream is updating at more than 1 tweet per second right now.

Of course, it is messy, sloppy, repetitive, rumors mixed in with facts, a lot of retweets and it needs better authority, curation and editing tools, but still…

It is like a window into the future has opened. This one of those special moments in technology from which you realize there is no coming back.

If the Iranian protests succeed, Twitter will have been to Iran what fax machines were to Eastern Europe.

The stream is pouring out everything from news, to links to videos, to messages of support, to advice on how to, say, disable a Soviet-era tank or which embassies are or are not taking the injured.

It makes Google News look vulnerable to The Daily Show’s question to the NY Times about “Why is ‘aged’ news is better than real news?”.

Google News can’t be any faster than CNN, BBC, NY Times et al and it does not matter how good those organizations are, no individual organization can keep up with this type of mass-produced content.

It is why Larry Page said Google needs sub-second indexing; it is what Borthwick expressed very elegantly about real-time here.

I did not understand real-time a year ago; I understood it intellectually, maybe three months ago (but even then you think: do I really need Techcrunch or even Flight 1549 in “real-time”?)

But watching #iranelection tonight there can be little doubt about the direction in which distribution is irrevocably headed.

Four NY Taxi Ads

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009

For the last year NY taxis have been showing ads on small TV screens. Unfortunately the ads haven’t changed in months, so taking a taxi is an exercise in absolute ad bombardment.

Did Taxi TV guarantee a certain number of impressions? Does nobody else want to advertise in taxis? Time will tell.

In the meantime, here are 4 ads that are still bearable on the 500th showing.

First, a super-enigmatic ad from state broadcaster, Russia Today. Works because it is non-obvious.

then, this Smith and Wollensky ad makes me hungry

Peyton Manning going around the US is good for a laugh.

Finally, Shaq playing Scramble…

Dubai 2009

Thursday, January 15th, 2009

In a further sign that the property bubble in Dubai has popped, Nakheel, the state-controlled developer, said it was halting work on a skyscraper that would have stood one kilometer tall, or roughly twice the height of the Empire State Building in New York.

The suspended building is part of a growing list of projects that have gone cold in what was one of the hottest real estate markets in the world. In December, Nakheel stopped work on Dubai’s very own Trump Tower — an $800 million project that was to sit on one of the emirate’s fabricated palm-shaped islands.

Other projects that are reportedly on hold for various reasons include big names like the W hotel and the Four Seasons Hotel.

Moody’s Investors Service sees more trouble on the horizon for Dubai and this week issued its first negative outlook on banks in the United Arab Emirates since it began reviewing them a decade ago. It believes that many small-scale developers that took out loans will go bust as property prices spiral downwards, according to The National newspaper in Abu Dhabi.

From the Wall Street Journal

So in June 2007, I went to Dubai with my father to visit local universities. It was my first time there and my father’s first time in 30 years.

He had previously been there to do a feasibility study for a dairy farm in Al-Ain because at the time there was no fresh milk in the area due to the scorching heat.

Much has been said about the amazing transformation Dubai has done to compete for the title of Middle Eastern (global?) city of the future and it is impressive and far-sighted.

But beyond the brand-name projects, what caught my attention was rows and rows and rows of regular apartment buildings being built simultaneously. I counted 40 cranes in a row on one highway

Now Dubai only has 2 million people and the vast majority are foreign laborers so the only possible market would be foreigners moving to Dubai and they would have to be emigrating there at a pretty radical rate to absorb this type of supply. I figured there had to be availability and maybe some good rental rates (we were considering running a study abroad program there).

“So who was buying all these apartments? Are prices falling? Could we rent some at a good price?” I ask.

“No, they are expensive. Everyone is buying them and making money because prices are going up very quickly. In fact, Saudis are buying whole apartment buildings and keeping them empty just so that they have an apartment building in Dubai

Oh. Well, that is certainly going to end well…

And yet rents are still supposedly soaring.

Later that year I was in Shanghai, the other construction capital of the world, and there even though it too was bubbly, it was hard to worry about the lead financial city of a country backed with a hinterland of 1 billion people. There will be ups and downs but the long-term future is assured.

Dubai though is possibly the most radical bet in real estate history, an attempt to make something out of nothing.

It is probably the optimal strategy to take the bet for Dubai because if they don’t, the game is over once the oil runs out. But I can’t think of any modern parallel to what they are doing. Either they will succeed in the medium term and become a major world hub like Singapore or Hong Kong or someday, 100 years from now, the desert will take back over.

What does an API do?

Saturday, November 15th, 2008

Background

The area where non-developers become most confused when I describe our software initiatives is when I explain that we have built some of our software, like our video publishing platform, with an extensive API to allow it to be controlled programmatically.

This generally creates a blank stare in non-programmers.

Wikipedia describes an API as follows:

An application programming interface (API) is a set of functions, procedures, methods, classes or protocols that an operating system, library or service provides to support requests made by computer programs.[1]

which I am not sure does you any good unless you already knew what an API was.

A Simple Example

Today, I wrote this a simple example to explain the API concept to a non-developer and hopefully this might be helpful to others as well. This is obviously a bit simplified, but I think captures the general concept.

1) Assume we build a web based software service called TemperatureConverter.com whose sole purpose in life was to convert Celsius into Fahrenheit and vice-versa.

2) This simple website has one page, where we enter a number, select if it is in Celsius or Fahrenheit and hit the Convert! button. At this stage the software would do some arithmetic and return back in bold letters the converted temperature.

So if we entered 32 Fahrenheit and hit Convert!, a big bold 0 appears on the screen.

This is a “standard” human controlled User Interface. We have to come to the site, press some buttons, use our mouse and we get our answer.

3) If we then build an API for this application, we would create a protocol by which a piece of software or another website could then communicate with our TemperatureConverter.

Essentially the API defines how a software application should communicate with our website if it wanted us to do a temperate conversion for it. It is the User Interface to our application if our user is a piece of software (typically referred to as the “Client” in this context).

For example, the other website or software application might say: 32 Fahrenheit Convert and our server might reply 0 Celsius

4) Why is this important?

Well now our application is not just limited to people that want to come to our site. Any one can take this cool functionality we built relating to temperature conversion and include it in their website, whether it is a cooking site, a weather site or a scientific calculator site. The client site can also customize the look, feel, presentation of the User Interface that the end-user sees or build a whole new application on top of the API.

Overall, APIs are a Very Good Thing.

They allow functionality to be built in one place and be reused in many places and their use for web-based applications is increasing rapidly.

In practice, some APIs are provided for free, whereas others are paid for, usually on a usage basis, by the client.

I hope this is helpful to some of you!

Extra Credit For the More Ambitious:

Let’s look at a real-life part of our Video Publishing platform’s API. This is the protocol for updating a video’s title and description in our video publishing platform.

Casual readers can stop here because we don’t explain any new concepts in this area, just show what an actual API might look like.

The API code itself is in regular font and my comments are in italics.

Sample Request:

This is the request the software client makes our server

POST /videos/ 2a6a4c2a8b42062af20ce207293e04be HTTP/1.1
This identifies the video

Host: ec2-75-101-235-2.compute-1.amazonaws.com
This identifies our server

Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:52:54 GMT
This is the time

X-VWS-Client: test-account
The client’s account name

X-VWS-Accept: xml
Defines the format used, XML

X-VWS-Auth: 90a6d325e982f764f86a7e248edf6a660d4ee833
The key (password) confirming the client is who it says it is

post content: title=title&description=description
The new desired title and description.

Sample Response :
This is the response from our server

HTTP/1.1 200 OK
all is ok

Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:52:55 GMT
Here is the time

Server: VideoWebService
Who we are

Content-Length: 68
Length of the content

Connection: close
This connection is done

Content-Type: text/xml
The format of our reply


What happened. In this case, success!

Oh oh, Euro-arbitrage

Saturday, October 4th, 2008

Unintended consequences:

a) On Tuesday, Ireland, concerned about a run on its banks, guaranteed all their deposits

b) The next day, the Irish banks start calling UK bank customers and suggest they transfer money to their banks

c) On Friday, Greece guaranteed all of its banks deposits

You now have two Euro-denominated countries with unlimited deposit insurance and others without unlimited deposit insurance. Unless someone restricts the program, either the rest of Europe will have to do the same or you will see deposits flow to those countries, weakening the countries they are leaving from but ultimately destabilizing even the recipient countries.

These events either start to push the Euro apart or, more likely, force Europe to integrate more closely from an economic and regulatory perspective.

Galis European Championship vs. Russia, 1987

Monday, August 18th, 2008

The most common response to my mega Greece basketball post was: “I didn’t know about this Galis guy”

Youtube to the rescue with a highlight reel of the 1987 European Championship.

It starts off slow and the editing is all cheese, but check out: 2:37, 2:53, 4:42, the latter two being totally ridiculous for a guy his size. (and at 1:37, you also see the current Greek coach and Galis’s teammate, Giannakis).

Medal Round Predictions: Olympics Basketball

Monday, August 18th, 2008

Quarter Finals:

Spain beat Croatia modestly
Lithuania beats China fairly easily
USA beats Australia easily
Greece beats Argentina barely

Semi-Finals

Spain beats Lithuania modestly
USA gets crushed by Greece (just kidding, the US should win this, but you know who I will be rooting for)

Final
USA beats Spain

Now these are all fairly conventional predictions except for Greece-Argentina where Argentina is favored so at least one will be wrong.

So far there have been few surprises. With the possible question of Australia, these are the best 8 teams in the world.

Greek Basketball

Thursday, August 14th, 2008

Background

I am camped out on my couch at 8am watching the Greece-USA Olympic basketball game on USA Networks. This has potential to be a great game.

Team USA is, well, Team USA.

Greece is the third best basketball team in the world and, more interestingly, is the only team that beat the USA in their 21 international matches since the 2004 Olympics. Greece beat a very strong US team in the semi-finals of World Championship in 2006.

While I am watching I will give some background on how Greece, a nation of 10 million short stocky guys, has created a national team capable of hanging with the US and has a local league that is starting to pick off serious NBA players.

My prediction for the game. The US should win. It is still group play, the US has a loss to avenge, this team is a better team than the 2006 team (though that was the best US team in years).

Greece will be defensively strong as always; to win they also have to be hitting their threes. When they beat the US in 2006, they shot 62.5% from the floor. As usual, Greece only has a chance if everything goes right.


Current Score:
Ok, we won’t know the final score because I have to go to work, but the US will win easily. EDIT: Final Score 92-69 USA

First and third quarters were fairly even and the USA crushed the 2nd quarter and everyone is playing subs in the 4th. Greece turned the ball over a lot and couldn’t hit threes and there is no way they will be competitive against the US doing that.

Greece needs to close out Angola and China and hopefully will be seeing the US again in the knockout round!

Good game summary at the SF Chronicle:

For nearly two years, it had been the burr under their saddle, the stick in their craw. If not a hot, searing memory that kept them awake at night, it at least burned their pride when the topic was brought up.

So Team USA took the floor Thursday night and served up a reminder of their own with a 92-69 thumping of Greece to run their record to 3-0 in the Olympics.

Their ultimate goal is to reclaim the gold medal. But there was the matter of taking care of business first against Greece.

It was Sept. 1, 2006, when Vassilis Spanoulis and his buddies stuck it to the U.S. at the World Championship in Japan. That game forced the Americans to settle for the bronze medal, but it also gave them the fire that has burned in their bellies on the long road to China.

Greece took the U.S. to the woodshed that night by running 42 pick-and-roll plays that Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team was unable to stop.

The six players (LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony) who were on the court that night at the Super Arena in Saitama had spent more than 23 months thinking about payback.

The U.S. had won 13 consecutive international games since then, but this was the one that really mattered.

Full Article here

Now, on to our Greek basketball history lesson!

Greece Basketball, the Ghali Era

Before the mid 1980s, Greece was not a factor in international basketball. Their rise to prominence can be directly traced to the decision by one man, Nikos Galis to come back to Greece after he was injured after he was drafted by the Celtics and was cut.

Galis was probably the best pure scorer in European basketball history.

He is only 6′1 and had a style of play that I have not seen before or since. He was not particularly a 3 point shooter and he did not have any other superstars on his team so Greek national games were basically Galis driving into the lane against guys 2x his size, double and triple pumping, and somehow getting it in. I have not seen that type of thing consistently from a guy his size.

Some stats:

Galis was the leading scorer in every major European and world international competition that he participated in from 1983 onwards, the Eurobasket 1983, the 1986 FIBA World Championship, the Eurobasket 1987, the Eurobasket 1989, and the Eurobasket 1991.

He averaged 33.0 points per game at the Eurobasket 1983, 33.7 points per game at the 1986 FIBA World Championship, 37.0 points per game at the Eurobasket 1987, 35.6 points per game at the Eurobasket 1989, and 32.4 points per game at the Eurobasket 1991.

Galis greatest moment came in the European championships in 1987 held in Athens. At that point, the overwhelming tournament favorite was the Soviet Union (which incorporated Lithuania) and had a monster and very large team. The Soviet Union had won the European Championship 14 (!) times and beat Greece all 12 times they had met.

Greece met them in the final and Galis single-handedly pushed Greece to victory 103-101 in overtime

At the time, this was probably Greece’s single largest team sporting achievement and was seared into the minds of every teenager in Greece and made basketball an extremely popular sport.

That performance led former Soviet Union star Sergey Belov to comment:

“I admire him. When he plays one against one there is no way to stop him. I never thought that could be a player who could on his own beat the Soviet Union.”

“I feel that if Galis wants to make a basket, he will do it no matter who his opponent is,” said Lithuanian star Arvydas Sabonis.

Needless to say, he also dominated the Greek club league, both domestically and in international club play.

His personal scoring record in one game was 62 points, achieved in a Greek League game in 1981

He played 13 seasons with Aris, winning eight Greek titles, five Greek Cups, one Korac Cup (1985) and also making three EuroLeague Final Four appearances. Of the eight Greek titles, six were consecutive during which Aris put together a remarkable 80 game winning streak.

For those coaches who he came up against, most strategies to stop him proved futile. Former Nashua Den Bosh coach Rood Harrewain advocated locking Galis in the dressing room before the game, while Wojeck Krajowski of Lech Poznan looked to a higher power: “Before the game we made our plans on how we will stop the four players of Aris,” he said following a European club competition game. “For Galis, we made our prayers…

Greece Basketball, the Current Era

After Galis retired, Greece basketball receded slightly for a few years, but by the mid to late 90s the team was again among the best teams in the world as all the teenagers inspired by Galis came into prominence.

Over the last 15 years, Greece has consistently placed in the top 6 teams of the world and has been especially strong recently.

World Championships: 90 (6th), 94 (4th), 98 (4th), 06 (2nd)

European Championships: 87 (1st), 89 (2nd), 91 (5th), 93 (4th), 95 (4th), 97 (4th), 03 (5th), 05 (1st), 07 (4th)

Olympics: 96 (5th), 04 (5th)

In 2005, they again won the European Championship and in 2006, they had their biggest victory ever when they beat the USA in the semi-finals of the World Championships.

This was a bit of a shock to a US team that has not otherwise lost since the 2004 Olympics. Unlike the 2000 and 2004 teams, Team USA 2006 had real stars (james, wade, etc) and a good coaching philosophy.

Greece beat them with solid defense, non-stop pick and roll and great 3 point shooting.

Video highlights of that Game are here

ESPN on that game

Greece Basketball 2008 and beyond

Going into the Olympics, Greece is probably the 3rd best team after the USA and Spain. Spain has has been a massive thorn in Greece’s side recently, beating them for the world title in 2006, the euro championships in 2007 and the Olympic group play.

Good overview of the Olympic teams is here.

All three teams should advance from group play, though it is going be tough going in the knock-out phase since all three top teams are in the same bracket.

The future of Greek basketball should remain solid regardless. Greece recently won the under 18 European championships and at the Club level, Greece has 2 of the best teams in Europe, Olympiakos and Panathiniakos, both of which are NBA-caliber teams.

Olympiakos recently made waves by signing away Josh Childress from the Hawks and rumored to be making a run at Lebron James in 2010.

So this remains to me a great example of how passion for a sport has transformed a country. There is no logical reason why a country of 10 million that is not particularly tall should be consistently a top 6 team against countries with 50,60,200, 300 million, 1.2 billion people. But that is hoop dreams I guess…As the NY Times said:

The Greek basketball team could be considered the Hoosiers of the Adriatic, with no players currently in the N.B.A. The team’s success, including a silver in the 2006 world championship, has been predicated on its ability to play together.

I will close with this very funny quote about the Lebron rumors.

I imagine that most of you out there doubt that the club is ready to pony up the sort of paper necessary to tempt LBJ. If my time living in Greece taught me anything, however, it’s that wealthy Hellenes are, almost without exception, passionate to the point of eccentricity. Consequently, I wouldn’t put anything past the Aggelopoulos (an-ghell-op-oo-loss) brothers, the billionaire owners of Olympiakos and two of the biggest hoopheads in Greece, a country where basketball is the national sport and “friendly” discussions thereof regularly lead to felony assaults.

Talking of which, it’s difficult to convey the place hoops holds in Greek culture with mere words, but a brief anecdote should give you some idea. Last week, I stayed in the Piraias suburb of Athens at my aunt’s place, a small, square house about five minutes from the “Peace and Friendship Stadium” in which Olympiakos play. Seeing the spotless interior of the house, I asked my aunt why they hadn’t painted over the numerous graffiti that scarred the front of the building. She pointed out that some of the scribblings had, in fact, been covered with whitewash, although the largest one was left untouched. I again asked why that was.

She explained that fans of Panathinaikos, a rival club, had painted their motto on the house, but before they could get rid of it an Olympiakos group had covered it with their own. Being Olympiakos die-hards themselves, they decided to leave the façade as it was. Not only was my fifty-five-year-old aunt fan enough to leave her home adorned with a crudely-drawn Olympiakos logo and several curse-filled exhortations, but she was also able to name Scoonie Penn, Qyntel Woods and Roy Tarpley as former players. Before I could retrieve my jaw from the lemon-scented floor of the cramped kitchen, she went on to detail the various reasons Josh Childress would have difficulties adapting to Euroleague defences. Then she cooked calamari. With six million more like her in the city, it’s no wonder Greek club owners are willing to dig deep to bring big names on board, even knowing that they’ll likely never recoup their investment.

Articles referenced are here: wikipedia, FIBA, Hopesvibe

Dave Barry on Taxes

Saturday, April 19th, 2008

From Dave Barry.

Be sure to mail your return in a timely manner, because this year, filing taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:

Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?

A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q. Where will the government get this money?

A. From taxpayers.

Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?

A. Only a smidgen.

Q. What is the purpose of this payment?

A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.

Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China?

A. Shut up.

Part I of II: Review of 2007 Predictions

Monday, January 7th, 2008

As highly distinguished (time to kiss up to my 2 readers!) regular followers of this blog know this has been my year of attempting to humiliate myself via public predictions. I figured this is the only way for me to counter my tendency to think I am always right through the amazing trick called selective memory.

In Part I, we review the last year’s predictions. In Part II, we will do 2008 predictions.

Overall Q3/Q4 2006 and Q1 2007 is when my close friends would take me out to drinks hoping for a pleasant evening and instead get to watch me gesticulate wildly about “subprime”, “no-doc loans”, and credit spreads. I got around to committing thoughts to blog in March 2007, but these predictions were little different from what I was babbling about in Dec 2006. In any case, in the last 9-12 months, we have had the pleasure of watching the following unfold:

housing always goes up -> what’s subprime? -> it is not that big a deal -> it is contained to subprime -> what is Alt-A? -> it is contained to subprime and Alt-A -> It won’t affect prime -> It won’t affect the housing market -> it won’t affect the housing market that much, -> it won’t affect the economy -> it won’t affect the economy that much -> there won’t be a recession -> there won’t be a severe recession (that is where we stand today).

Literally thousands of extremely smart and highly paid people from investment banks, investment firms, the Federal reserve, academia and the media seemed absolutely incapable of thinking more than one step ahead at a time. They could only envision an incremental change from today’s conventional wisdom. Strange.

Economist of the Year has to go to Nouriel Roubini who has been basically right every time he opened his mouth this year.

In any case, below, I go through each prediction and note how I think I did. The original post can be verified here.

Overall, this year’s grade was an A- on prediction and an F- on implementation.

I was as right as I am ever going to be on predicting anything and to the best of my knowledge I did not enter into any financial transactions where financial benefits accrued to me due to that knowledge. In fact, I did not even get around to hedging Global Learning Semester’s euro exposure so basically I lost one of our companies money by ignoring my own public advice.

There is certainly something to be learned from my F-, but I am not sure I would like to know what it is (!)

So this year’s rewards will just have to be psychological in nature.

————

1. Subprime underwriting bubble and drop in underwriting standards exposed as unsustainable.

100% correct

2. Complex distribution of risk in subprime mortgages through financial instruments like CDOs does very little to protect against stupid credit / underwriting risks. The thought that slicing and dicing the risk makes it somehow less risky is false.

100% correct, instead this “innovation” made it more risky because it has added counterparty risk everywhere and placed illiquidity in the hands of parties that don’t have access to the Fed.

3. Stand-alone subprime mortgage originators have a 1998-style industry shake-out with tremendous drops in valuation and bankruptcies.

100% correct. Almost every standalone subprime originator is now out of business in one way or another.

1. Subprime MBS continue to underperform through 2007 and Q2 2008. We have not seen the worst of things yet.

So far, so good

2. Alt-A MBS underperform from now Q2 2007 to late 2008. The concept that this is an issue contained to subprime is put to rest by the end of Q3 2007. Keep an eye on Indy Mac as a bellweather.

100% right. IndyMac is down 83% since I made this prediction. Boo on me for not shorting.

3. Housing prices fall by 20%+ in certain regions as the appraisal cycle starts to work in reverse. In other words, lower appraised values push more homeowners into low/no equity situations, leading to more foreclosures, lower sales prices and lower appraised values. Values start falling in 2007 through mid 2008.

Right on track. According to Schiller, housing prices are down 10% in real terms and still falling.

4. Investment banking investments in subprime origination platforms in 2006 turn out to have been terrible investments at the peak of the market. Note this has already happened, it is just not fully disclosed yet.

100% correct. See Merrill Lynch and First Franklin for the best example of this. There are no counterexamples.

B. Buyouts

1. Multiple LBO funds IPO in 2007 after Blackstone. Let’s say at least 3 in total but no more than 6.

Missed this one. The window closed faster than I expected.

2. High-yield credit tightens from late 07 to late 08. Spreads and covenants start to return to historical norms.

Was a little late on this by 1Q, but basically correct.

3. First higher-than-expected losses to the junior (CDO) tranches of high-yield issuances in 2008.

Remains to be seen…

4. More regulatory pressure by 2008, either regarding tax rates or fees earned by the senior MDs, particularly of the publicly traded vehicles.

5. At least one very visible PE-backed company blow-up from Q2 08 to Q2 09.

Remains to be seen. We have certainly seen deals blow up, but that is not the same thing.

6. 2008-2010 are tougher years for the PE industry as a) ability to lever deteriorates, b) revenue growth at companies slows, c) public markets are less accomodating to leveraged IPOs, d) competition for deals does not ease. Holding times increase and more time is spent on operations.

Remains to be seen, but all trends are pointing in this direction.

7. Overall, 2006-2007 vintage funds underperform. 2009-2010 vintage funds perform well as markets and valuations correct or over-correct. I have no opinion about 2008 vintage.

2007-2008 vintage distressed debt funds do well also.

#7 is a long-range prediction so if I am off by a year, I am still claiming victory!

Remains to be seen…

C. Overall:

1. Economy weakens substantially in 2008 into a growth recession or actual recession. I am less sure of this than of my other predictions but think it is more likely than not. If this happens at the wrong time relative to the coming housing/mortgage bust, it severely aggravates issues in housing and the two cycles self-reinforce.

This is almost certainly now going to happen

2. Dollar crosses 1.40 against the Euro at some point in 07/08.

Yes, I was too optimistic as it actually touched 1.50. Another failure to profit! :)

3. All forms of credit tighten by late 2007 to mid 2008 and yield spreads start to return to historical norms

Yes. Again, I was off by 1Q

4. New President in Q4 2008 inherits a weak and vulnerable economy.

Remains to be seen, but there is no way this will not be the case…